Certified Fraud Examiner (CFE)

Filed under:General News — posted by Fred Cutler on November 2, 2011 @ 4:24 pm

Effective November 2, 2011 I am officially a CFE in addition to CPA.  Please contact me if you suspect there is any fraudulent activity in your business.  My fee is competitive and I will do a thorought job of identifying the fraudster, documenting my work and presenting my roport to you and/or your Board of Directors.  If you are an attorney and need assistance, I can provide my CV.  This is a milestone in my career and I look forward to working in this exciting “growth” industry.

Great article on San Diego Real Estate by Alan Nevin

Filed under:General News — posted by Fred Cutler on @ 4:17 pm

The Clock Strikes ’12
Alan Nevin, London Group Realty Advisors

Special to SVN/Promus Commercial, AMO

We are nearing the close of one of the most confusing years in modern U.S. history and now have to figure out what it is that we have to look forward to in 2012.

Our confusion in 2011 relates to the fact that the Feds keep telling us that we have been in a recovery mode for two years, yet we are gaining few if any new jobs Nationally; our European counterparts are circling the drain; and we have an administration and a congress in Washington that doesn’t appear to understand the seriousness of our problems, much less know how to correct them.

Now let’s turn to 2012 and talk about San Diego. We are a little different from most other places in the U.S. Our economy is stable; we are gaining jobs (probably 15,000-20,000 in 2011). We are gaining population (30,000+ annually) and adding 10,000 households annually. Pointedly, we are adding consumers and space users.

We did not overbuild in the rabid 2002-2006 period, unlike our neighbors in beleaguered Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Our apartment market is highly stable and boasts vacancy rates under 5.0%. In 2012, we will start 2,000+ new apartment units, but they won’t enter the market until 2013-2014 and that will mean a dearth of new product coming on-line in 2012. That should result in concessions disappearing and rents increasing 3-4%. Phoenix and LV, eat your hearts out! And cap rates will remain embarrassingly low.

In the retail sector, we are in amazingly good shape with vacancy rates below 5.0%, with most of the more modern centers sporting 96-97% occupancy. And better yet, there are numerous national chains that are looking to enter the San Diego market. I know that we really don’t need any more hamburger, yogurt, cupcake or women’s clothing stories, but they do want to stake a place in our county and it is only courteous to welcome them here.

The industrial sector is doing surprisingly well, too. The traditional stock of smaller modern spaces in urban settings is staying full. And those same spaces are gradually being converted to retail goods warehousing, office space, storefronts, and often research and development facilities. Better yet, construction of new space has subsided substantially so the inventory is stable. In fact, the low vacancy rates are somewhat amazing when one considers that a substantial amount of the industrial square footage was formerly occupied by the now moribund construction industry.

Finally, the office sector is very, very slowly returning to health as new small businesses are created and existing ones expand. In the “A” space, there actually appear to be space battles by firms eager to have their names atop modern buildings.  It will take another 2-3 years before our office market can be considered stabilized, but it’s working its way there.

So, without appearing too Pollyannaish, I think that 2012 will be a better year for San Diego County. It is possible that we will exhibit good health while the rest of the world wrestles with a tepid recovery. Not forever, mind you, but in the short run.

And 2012 will be a year of heightened political activity with elections coming near. In fact, 2012 may be one of the most exciting elections years in recent memory. Locally we have one of the better set of policy makers we have had for some time. Nationally, the focus will be on the economy. Whether we re-elect or newly elect, it will be on a platform of job creation and economic revitalization. Miracles could happen.

image: detail of installation by Bronwyn Lace